| 摘要: |
| 全球气候变化的大背景下，国家公园人口变化易对
生态环境造成一定的扰动。目前研究尚缺少气候因素与人口变
化对国家公园及周边区域植被覆盖演进机制的探讨。以祁连山
国家公园及周边区域为例，基于像元分类及趋势分析阐释相关
变量的时空演进机制，利用长时间栅格序列二阶偏相关分析验
证降水、气温与人口变化对植被覆盖的显著相关性。结果表
明，2012—2022年：1)研究区各变量像元占比基本稳定，
植被覆盖中无植被及稀疏植被区有所波动，降水量中干旱区在
2019年波动较大，气温变化总体较为平稳，人口变化中无人
区占比呈逐步扩大趋势；2)植被覆盖、降水量及人口分布的
变化趋势均呈现“东南高、西北低”的空间格局态势，气温变
化以研究区控制区为主线呈较为复杂的高低聚集分布；3)研
究区植被覆盖与降水、气温及人口分布主要在东南及西北片区
呈现较为显著的相关性，其余片区显著性较弱。综合研究成
果，建议未来国家公园需协同控制人口变化以精准协调相关区
域内生态的可持续发展。 |
| 关键词: 风景园林 祁连山国家公园 气候因素 人口变
化 植被覆盖演化 入口社区 趋势分析 二阶偏相关分析 |
| DOI：10.19775/j.cla.2024.12.0043 |
| 投稿时间：2024-08-11修订日期：2024-09-20 |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51968042) |
|
| A Study on the Spatiotemporal DifferentiationCharacteristics of Population Changes andVegetation Cover Evolution in Qilian MountainNational Park and Related Areas under the Contextof Climate Change |
| WEI Junqing,JIA Liqi |
| Abstract: |
| Under the background of global climate change,
population changes in national parks can cause certain disturbances
to the ecological environment. Current research lacks discussion
on the mechanisms of vegetation cover evolution in relation to
climate factors and population changes in national parks and
their surrounding areas. Using Qilian Mountain National Park
and its surrounding region as an example, this study explains the
spatiotemporal evolution mechanisms of relevant variables through
pixel classification and trend analysis. A long-term raster sequence
and second-order partial correlation analysis were used to verify
the significant correlations between precipitation, temperature,
and population changes with vegetation cover. The results show
that during the period from 2012 to 2022: 1) The proportion of
pixels for each variable in the study area remained relatively
stable. There were fluctuations in the areas with no vegetation
and sparse vegetation. The arid regions in terms of precipitation
saw significant fluctuations in 2019, while temperature changes
were generally stable. In terms of population, the proportion of
uninhabited areas gradually increased; 2) The changes in vegetation
cover, precipitation, and population distribution exhibited a
spatial pattern of "high in the southeast, low in the northwest".
Temperature changes showed a more complex distribution of high
and low clusters along the mainline of the controlled area within the
study region; 3) Vegetation cover was significantly correlated with
precipitation, temperature, and population distribution mainly in
the southeastern and northwestern areas, with weaker correlations
in other areas. Based on the comprehensive research findings, it
is recommended that future national park management should
coordinate population changes to precisely ensure sustainable
ecological development in relevant areas. |
| Key words: landscape architecture Qilian Mountain National Park climate factor population change vegetation cover evolution gateway community trend analysis second-order partial correlation
analysis |
