| 摘要: |
| 森林植被固碳服务是生态系统服务评估的重要内
容之一，在区域碳中和发挥着重要的碳汇作用。以生物量法
和CASA模型法相结合，评估杭州市三江汇地区森林植被固
碳能力；采用CEADs县级碳排放清单估算三江汇地区的能源
碳排放量；综合碳汇和碳排评估该地区森林植被固碳对能源
碳排放量的抵消率。从碳减排和增汇2个方面，对森林植被
抵消能源碳排放的能力进行未来情景预测。研究结果表明：
1)2017年三江汇地区森林植被固碳量为4.98×104t，能源
碳排放量为2.07×106t，森林植被能源碳排放的抵消率为
2.41%，三江汇森林植被能源碳抵消率呈现出“东低西高、
北低南高”的空间格局；2)研究设置9个情景对2030年森林
植被碳抵消率进行定量预测，预测结果显示研究区森林植被
面积增加有利于提升森林植被对能源碳排放量的抵消能力，
森林面积每增加5%，森林植被对能源碳排放量抵消率可提高
0.12%~0.29%；减少人均能源碳排放对提高森林植被碳抵消
能力的效果更为显著，人均能源碳排由2.77t/人降低为0.90
和0.72t/人，森林植被碳抵消率可分别提高2.21%~2.43%
和3.36%~3.94%。定量评估区域森林植被固碳能力对能源碳
排放量的抵消作用及其预测研究，能为未来杭州市三江汇地区
及其他地区的“碳中和”目标实现和区域可持续发展提供科学
依据和案例参考。 |
| 关键词: 风景园林 森林植被固碳 能源碳排 碳抵消 情
景预测 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目: |
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| Assessment and Scenario Prediction of theOffsetting Effect of Forest Carbon Sequestration onthe Energy Carbon Emission in Sanjianghui Area ofHangzhou |
| ZHANG Shiqin,XIA Fan,ZHOU Lijuan,WANG Xiangrong,XIE Yujing |
| Abstract: |
| Carbon sequestration of forest vegetation is one of the
most important contents of ecosystem service assessment, which
plays an important role in regional carbon neutralization. In this study,
the biomass method and the CASA model method were combined
to evaluate the carbon sequestration capacity of forest vegetation in
the Sanjianghui area of Hangzhou. The county-level carbon emission
inventory from CEADS was used to estimate the energy carbon
emission in the Sanjianghui area. Then, the offset rate of the forest
vegetation to the energy carbon emission was evaluated in the study
area. Combining the reduction of carbon emission and the increasement
of carbon sequestration, a future scenario prediction was made to
evaluate the ability of forest vegetation to offset the energy carbon
emissions. The results show that: 1) In 2017, the amount of forest
vegetation carbon sequestration was 4.98×104t, the amount of energy
carbon emission was 2.07×106t, and the energy carbon emission offset
rate of forest vegetation was 2.41%. The energy carbon emission
offset of forest vegetation in Sanjianghui area presented a spatial
pattern of "low in the east and south, and high in the west and north".
2) The study set up 9 scenarios to quantitatively predict the carbon
offset rate of forest vegetation in 2030. The prediction results showed
that the increase of forest vegetation area in the study area improved
the offset ability of forest vegetation to energy carbon emissions. For
every 5% increase in forest area, the offset rate of forest vegetation on
energy carbon emissions is 0.12%~0.29%. In the scenario of reducing
carbon emissions, the offset rate of forest vegetation on energy carbon
emissions increased by 2.21%~2.43% and 3.36%~3.94%, respectively.
This study quantitatively assessed and predicted the carbon offset
effect of regional forest vegetation carbon sequestration capacity on
energy carbon emissions, which could provide scientific basis for the
realization of the "carbon neutrality" goal and regional sustainable
development in the Sanjianghui area of Hangzhou and illustrate case
reference for other regions. |
| Key words: landscape architecture carbon sequestration of forest vegetation energy carbon emission carbon offset future scenario prediction |
