| 摘要: |
| 采用143个木香花(Rosa banksiae Ait.)自然分布
点数据和19个气候变量数据，运用基于ArcGIS地理信息系统平
台的最大熵MaxEnt(Maximum Entropy Model)生态位模
型，对木香花在中国的适生区域进行模拟预测，并探讨影响木
香花分布的主导气候因子。结果表明：1)基于气候变量与木香
花自然分布点的MaxEnt模型预测精度很高，可信度好，AUC
值为0.909，大于0.9；2)最冷月最低温、年降雨量、最冷季
降雨量是限制木香花分布的主要气候变量；3)当前中国木香花
潜在地理分布高适生区面积为74.87万km2
、中适生区面积为
91.05万km2
、低适生区面积113.51万km2
，总适生区面积为
279.43万km2
，其中核心分布区主要集在中国亚热带包括云
南、贵州、四川、重庆、湖北、江苏、陕西、安徽8省。以期对
木香花进行仿自然群落、数字景观、定量化植物造景设计，科
学调控其主导环境因子进行栽培、管理、养护，确保成活率，
为园林绿地建设提供理论依据。 |
| 关键词: 园林植物 木香花 最大熵(MaxEnt)模型 潜
在分布区 ArcGIS |
| DOI： |
|
| 基金项目: |
|
| Prediction of Potential Geographical Distribution and Habitat Analysis of Rosa banksiae in China Based on MaxEnt Model and ArcGIS |
| WANG Lihan,QIN Hua,SUN Xiufeng,WANG Xinyue |
| Abstract: |
| : In this study, 143 Rosa banksiae Ait. natural distribution
points and 19 climate variable data were used, and the Maximum
Entropy Model niche model based on ArcGIS GIS platform was
adopted. In this paper, we simulated and predicted the suitable
areas of Rosa banksiae Ait. in China, and discussed the dominant
climate factors affecting the distribution of Rosa banksiae Ait..
The results showed as follows: 1) The MaxEnt model based on
climate variables and natural distribution points of Rosa banksiae Ait.
had high prediction accuracy and reliability, and the AUC value was
0.909 > 0.9; 2) The coldest temperature in the coldest month, the annual
rainfall and the coldest season rainfall were the main climatic variables
limiting the distribution of Rosa banksiae Ait.; 3) At present, the potential
geographical distribution of Rosa banksiae Ait. covers 748,700km2
with
high suitability, 910,500km2
with medium suitability, 1,135,100km2
with low suitability, and 2,794,300km2
with total suitability. The core
distribution area is mainly concentrated in subtropical China, including
Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shaanxi, Anhui
and other 8 provinces. Through this study, It is expected to carry out the
imitation of natural community, digital landscape and quantitative plant
landscape design of Rosa banksiae Ait., Scientific control of its leading
environmental factors for cultivation, management and maintenance,
so as to ensure the survival rate and provide a theoretical basis for the
construction of garden green space. |
| Key words: landscape plant Rosa banksiae Ait. MaxEnt model potential distribution area ArcGIS |
