| 摘要: |
| 全球气候变化引发的海平面上升对沿海区域的环
境和社会经济发展造成巨大破坏。以珠三角广州南沙为研究
区域，基于传统、自然增长和规划控制3种土地利用格局预
设发展情景，采用PLUS(Patch-generating Land Use
Simulation Model)模型模拟各情景下的未来土地利用格
局。同时，针对近期(2030年)、中期(2050年)和远期(2100
年)3种不同海平面上升叠加风暴潮风险下的土地利用格局脆
弱性开展多情景定量化评估，并提出应对策略。结果显示：
1)3种土地利用格局发展情景中，传统格局情景能够最有效地
应对或缓解海平面上升和风暴潮灾害风险，而自然增长情景应
对未来海岸灾害的能力最弱；2)从不同土地利用类型的脆弱性
程度来看，城镇建设用地的综合脆弱性最高，而村庄建设用地
的综合脆弱性最低；3)根据不同发展情景及灾害风险应采用综
合防御、适应及撤退等多种应对策略。综合考虑了未来土地利
用格局的多种变化情景、灾害风险及应对策略，能够为滨海城
市应对未来海岸灾害的适应性规划提供决策参考。 |
| 关键词: 风景园林 海平面上升 PLUS模型 多情景模
拟 土地利用格局 脆弱性评估 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2022-04-30修订日期：2022-10-09 |
| 基金项目: |
|
| Multi-scenario Simulation Assessment of Landuse Pattern Vulnerability and Coping Strategies in Response to Sea Level Rise |
| CHEN Chongxian,FANG Yan,YAN Qianqian,LIU Jingy |
| Abstract: |
| The rise of sea level caused by global climate change
has great impact on the environment and social and economic
development of coastal areas. Taking Nansha District, Guangzhou
in the Pearl River Delta as the research area, the PLUS (Patchgenerating Land Use Simulation Model) model was used to simulate
the future land-use pattern based on the assumptions of three
land-use pattern development scenarios: traditional, natural, and
planning-control. At the same time, coping strategies were proposed
according to multi-scenario quantitative assessment of land-use
pattern vulnerability under three different sea-level rises combined
with storm surge risks: the short-term (2030), the medium-term
(2050) and the long-term (2100). The results show that: 1) Among
the three land-use pattern development scenarios, the traditional
pattern scenario was the most effective in coping with or mitigating
the risk of sea level rise and storm surge disaster, while the natural
development scenario with low control had the weakest ability to
cope with future coastal disasters. 2) From the perspective of the
vulnerability degree of different land-use types, the vulnerability of
urban construction land was the highest, and rural construction land
was the lowest. 3) According to different development scenarios and
disaster risks, various coping strategies such as defense, adaptation
and retreat should be integrated. This study considered multiple
scenarios of future land-use pattern changes, disaster risks and
response strategies, which can provide a reference for coastal city's
suitability planning to cope with future coastal disasters. |
| Key words: landscape architecture sea level rise PLUS (Patchgenerating Land Use Simulation Model) model multi-scenario
simulation land-use pattern vulnerability assessment |
