| 摘要: |
| 在气候变化背景下，水文连通是风景园林学学科中
景观水文研究的热点和重点之一。目前的景观水文连通研究
多基于静态地表，而忽略地表演化过程，尤其是河底泥沙动态
变化。在总结现有水文连通研究的基础上，结合气候预测模
型、水动力地表景观演变模型及景观连通指数研究方法，以英
国赛文河凯尔苏斯流域为研究区，采用UKCP18气候模型预
测RCP8.5情景下未来10年间(2021—2030年)日降雨量，
运用凯撒二维水动力地表景观演变模型(CAESAR-Lisflood)
模拟10年连续河流演化及淹没模式变化，基于景观连通指数
评价流域景观水文的动态连通变化。结果表明：泥沙变化对淹
没模式和水文连通性产生影响，未来10年间整体连接度(IIC)与
可能连通性(PC)变低，雨季水文IIC与PC变化幅度较大，旱季
平稳。凯尔苏斯流域洪泛区域比河道的沉积作用更明显，流域
总沉积量是侵蚀量的4.6倍。泥沙输移作用使得淹没面积减少
0.25km2
、流域总水量减少40%，水文IIC与PC降低 |
| 关键词: ：风景园林 水文连通 泥沙变化、CAESARLisflood模型 景观连通指数 RCP8.5情景 气候模型 |
| DOI： |
|
| 基金项目: |
|
| Study on Dynamic Connectivity of Landscape Hydrology and Sediment in Watershed under RCP8.5 Scenario |
| ZHAO Tianyi,CHENG Yuning |
| Abstract: |
| In the context of climate change, hydrological connectivity
is one of the hot spots and emphases of landscape hydrology research
in landscape architecture. At present, most studies on landscape
hydrological connectivity are based on static land surface, but ignore
the evolution of land surface, especially the dynamic changes of river
sediment. On the basis of summarizing the existing researches on
hydrological connectivity, climate prediction model, hydrodynamic
landscape evolution model and landscape connectivity index are
combined. Taking the Caersws of the Severn River in England as the
study area, the UKCP18 climate model was used to predict the daily
rainfall in the next ten years (2021-2030) under the RCP8.5 scenario,
and the Caeser-Lisflood model was used to simulate the decadal
continuous river evolution and inundation pattern changes. The dynamic
connectivity of landscape hydrology was evaluated based on the
landscape connectivity index. The results show that sediment changes
have an impact on inundation patterns and hydrological connectivity,
and the overall Integral Index of Connectivity (IIC) and Probability of
Connectivity (PC) will decrease in the next decade, the hydrological IIC
and PC will change greatly in rainy season, and be stable in dry season.
The deposition of flood area is more obvious than that of river channel,
and the total deposition is 4.6 times of erosion. The inundation area
decreased by 0.25km2
, the total water amount decreased by 40%, and the
hydrological IIC and PC decreased |
| Key words: landscape architecture hydrological connectivity sediment variation CAESAR-Lisflood landscape connectivity
index RCP8.5 scenario climate model |
