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突发公共卫生事件中南京公园管理策略 研究 ——基于OD矩阵模型
乐志,王晶
0
()
摘要:
针对突发公共卫生事件中的公园管理政策,以1月 24日的南京关闭公园景点规定为例,通过结合流行病学、公共 卫生、旅游、人口迁徙、绿地可达性多个专业领域数据及分析 方法,基于OD矩阵角度比较不同出行方式和传染期对政策执 行效果的影响差异。研究发现:1)及时关闭重要公园景点可能 使93%研究范围免于被传染,被传染人数下降62%~3 125%, 并间接减少重症病例;2)车行相较步行,传染区总面积增加 614%,高危区增加317倍,出行人口中公交比例越高,关闭 公园政策降低的染病率越高;3)步行、自行车传播与居民点 和公园入口最近距离有关,车行与居民点人口总数有关,各城 市需重点监控区域不同;4)节假日背景下,公园封闭政策应 该在进入社区传播前执行,否则效果大大降低。重要公共场所 和公交管控应作为同期政策,一并推出。
关键词:  风景园林  管理政策  公共卫生事件  流动人 口  绿地可达性  网络分析法
DOI:
基金项目:
The Study on Nanjing Park Management Strategyunder the Public Health Emergency Background—Based on the OD Matrix Model
YUE Zhi,WANG Jing
()
Abstract:
The study aimed at park management in public health emergencies. Taking the relevant regulations of Nanjing on January 24 as an example, the data and analysis were carried out based on the combination of epidemiology, public health, tourism, population migration, and green space accessibility. By comparing the differences of various possible strategies based on the OD matrix, findings were concluded as follows: closing important park attractions in time may save 93% of the research area from being infected and reduce the number of infected patients by 62%-3125%, indirectly reducing severe cases. The area of mobile transmission increased by 614%, and the high-risk areas increased by 317 times compared with walking transmission. The higher the proportion of bus and car trips, the more they can benefit from the policy of closing the park. Thirdly, walking transmission is mainly related to the closest distance between residential areas and park entrances, while mobile transmission is related to the total population of settlements much more. For different travel proportions, the areas to be monitored should also be different. Fourthly, in the context of holidays, the park closure policy should be implemented before entering the community spread stage. Otherwise the effect will be greatly reduced. At the same time, the research points out that the management and control of important public places like public parks and public transport management should be launched as a concurrent policy.
Key words:  landscape architecture  landscape management  public health emergency  migrant population  green space accessibility  network analysis

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