| 摘要: |
| 灾害风险分区研究是灾害科学防控和城市韧性建设
的决策基础，但目前洪涝灾害风险评价大多离不开主观因素
判断的影响，弱化或忽视城市化背景下灾害风险的异质性。
基于主成分分析和神经网络算法，分别对闽三角城市群城市
化水平和洪涝灾害风险进行辨识，采用统计学、空间计量学
等手段探讨城市化过程对闽三角城市群洪涝灾害的系统耦合
效应、空间作用效应和风险主控效应，根据综合效应特征将
闽三角高风险区分为正向作用区、双向作用区和负向作用
区，并提出“辨异识重-协调衔接-博弈权衡”的分区规划策
略，以达到提升城市群风险防控效率、保障国民生命财产安
全及生态系统稳定的目的。 |
| 关键词: 风景园林 洪涝灾害 BP神经网络 风险分区 规
划策略 闽三角 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目: |
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| Discussion on the Flood Disaster Risk Zoning and Planning Strategy of Urban Agglomeration in the Min Delta |
| WANG Qianwen,ZENG Jian,ZHAO Guangyu |
| Abstract: |
| Disaster risk zoning research is the basis of decision-making
for scientific disaster prevention and urban resilience construction.
However, most of the current flood disaster risk assessments are
inseparable from the influence of subjective factors, weakening
or ignoring the heterogeneity of disaster risks in the context of
urbanization. Based on the principal component analysis and neural
network algorithm, the urbanization level and flood disaster risk of
the Min Delta were identified. The methods of statistics and spatial
metrology were used to explore the system coupling effect, spatial
effect, and risk control effect of the urbanization process on the
flood disaster. According to the characteristics of the comprehensive
effects, the high risk was divided into the positive action zone, the
two-way action zone, and the negative action zone, and the zoning
planning strategy of "discrimination and recognition & coordination
and connection & game and trade-offs" was proposed to achieve
the purpose of improving the efficiency of urban agglomeration risk
prevention and control, ensuring the safety of people's lives and
properties, and the stability of the ecosystem. |
| Key words: landscape architecture flood disaster BP neural
network risk zoning planning strategy Min Delta |
